Tea in the Future

The Connoisseur Market
Cigars, Whiskey, Wine, Coffee, Sake, Cocktails, … Tea?

Why is it that someone will spend $40 on an ounce of whiskey? A person might argue the fact that they could buy an entire bottle of whiskey for the same price. The response is not often because they have more money than they know what to do with. The response (subliminally) is typically that they want to make their time count for something, that they live to experience things, not to be trapped on this Earth for the sake of it. Great whiskey is also delicious, and that’s an easy point to make.

In a wine boutique $70 will get you a pretty great bottle. $160 will get you something outstanding, world class. However that bottle of wine is a single experience in most cases. For $160 you can have 20 experiences of that same ‘world class’ level of tea. When I found that out, tea changed for me.

As connoisseurs of the finer things accumulate life experience, their desire to explore will carry over into tea just as it has into coffee. I’ve noticed the cogs turning slowly over the years, they are still turning slowly, but their progress has been a clearly observable phenomenon. I feel we’re almost to the critical point, I don’t know what it will take other than exposure, but once the momentum starts, I don’t think it will stop for centuries.

That’s not to say the future is entirely bright, and certainly not without issues (especially in Japan). Japan has an aging population and an overall lack of interest for young people to become involved with tea production. Tea consumption in Japan is still quite high, but its not necessarily related to quality. Tea consumed from PET bottles purchased in vending machines or convenience stores has been the majority since 2019. The Japanese farm that I work with mentioned that over half their staff at over 70 years old. What happens in 20 years?

My hypothesis is that the price and quality for artisanal teas will skyrocket due to a shortage of producers and demand of high quality products from connoisseurs. I also believe that the main market for Japanese tea will be international — essentially a mirror of what happened in the world of sake. The main steam soft drink market that bottled tea exists in will grow in line with other soft drinks, and thus the line which blurs specialty and commodity will become extremely clear.